What plans are available with MPX Renewables?

We offer two plans: the Ra plan, which provides forecasts up to three years in advance, and the Rb plan, which provides forecasts up to 30 years in advance. We recommend subscribing to the Rb plan because it allows you to view not only capture prices and FIP premium forecasts, but also the assumptions for ultra-long-term price projections and all the data that is available in the Ra plan.

What is "Capture Price"?

This is the average revenue per unit of electricity sold if the constantly fluctuating output of solar power and other renewable energy sources were to be sold to the wholesale electricity market. MPX Renewables calculates this by multiplying the renewable energy output by the market price every hour. Using Capture Price, you can easily predict market revenue by multiplying it by the expected monthly power generation.

How do you create market scenarios for the next 30 years?

The ultra-long-term market environment scenarios for the MPX Renewables Rb plan are based on the "Strategic Energy Plan" created by the government and the "Master Plan" created by OCCTO, etc., and aim for carbon neutrality, but rather create scenarios that can be expected as trends, rather than being based on overly ambitious targets.

How do you determine ultra-long-term market prices?

The key factors determining market prices are quantitatively assumed according to scenarios, and hourly market prices for nine areas are calculated using a fundamental model that reflects changes in demand and power source mix, fuel prices, carbon prices, and interconnection line construction plans. Adjustments are then made to account for market price fluctuation risks such as spikes and price declines. The calculation process is the same as for MPX Forward.

Why review ultra-long-term scenarios quarterly?

Even when forecasting market conditions for the ultra-long term, 30 years into the future, the underlying scenarios change due to numerous factors such as current energy policies, power generation plans, market system designs, and international energy market conditions. In particular, revisions to nuclear power policy and interconnection line development plans have a significant impact on area prices. Therefore, we provide the latest best-available forecast prices while taking into account the most recent policy trends.

What is the difference between this and MPX Forwards?

While MPX Forwards is a service for power trading, MPX Renewables is a service for power source investment and renewable energy PPAs. MPX Renewables provides data not available in MPX Forwards, such as capture price and FIP premium unit price forecasts, and is used by a wide range of customers, from power generators to consumers. In addition, we also provide JEPX price forecasts up to 30 years into the future, so it can be used not only for renewable energy but also for investment decisions on other power sources.

Do you calculate the FIP premium?

We provide a complete set of data necessary for the FIP system, including FIP premiums, adjustment coefficients, and adjusted FIP premiums. To address the need to change assumptions regarding FIP reference prices, we also provide Excel spreadsheets for calculation.

Can you provide data on the rate of occurrence of 0.01 yen/kWh and output curtailment rate?

We also provide data that aligns with market environment scenarios that are reviewed every three months, including the rate of occurrence of 0.01 yen/kWh and the output curtailment rate.

Can this be used for fair value assessment of a virtual PPA?

We have a proven track record of using virtual PPAs for fair value assessments. We can also explain future electricity market price calculation methods to audit firms; please contact us for details. Please note that we do not provide fair value assessment services.

Is it possible to conduct a business feasibility assessment for a solar power asset with integrated battery storage?

MPX Renewables data can also be used to evaluate the business viability of battery storage systems.

Can MPX Renewables data be used for the daily operation of battery storage systems?

For daily trading, you need to forecast market prices for the following day and beyond. Please use MPX Forwards.

Do you provide price forecasts for non-fossil fuel certificates and supply-demand adjustment markets?

We are not currently doing this.

A decision basis for futures with no clear answers.

MPX-Renewables

Service Overview

Concerns faced by businesses involved in renewable energy trading

"Renewable energy sources face both market price fluctuations and power generation volume fluctuations, but it's unclear how to quantitatively account for these two fluctuations when evaluating their economic viability."

Solution by MPX-Renewables

By conducting Monte Carlo simulations while considering the inverse correlation between "price" and "quantity," and calculating a weighted average price (=capture price), the value of renewable energy can be evaluated "fairly."

Service Features

01

Responding to diverse asset types such as FIP and battery storage systems
- Supports profitability evaluation tailored to diversifying renewable energy asset monetization models, such as solar power projects with integrated battery storage utilizing the FIP (Feed-in Premium) system.
- Further analysis is possible using various tools and reference data.
02

Long-term JEPX price forecasts up to 30 years
- We provide JEPX price forecasts for up to 30 years ahead, based on our assumed scenarios.
- It also becomes possible to evaluate long-term investment recovery prospects, etc.
  *This can be used not only for renewable energy investments but also when considering investments in other power sources such as thermal power.
03

Report on the latest trends in electricity and decarbonization
- In addition to data distribution, our analysts regularly report summaries of the distributed reports and the latest trends in electricity market and carbon neutrality-related policies and regulations. We also accept Q&A regarding the reports.
- Through dialogue with analysts, it becomes possible to deepen understanding.

Frequently Asked Questions

What plans are available with MPX Renewables?: We offer two plans: the Ra plan, which provides forecasts up to three years in advance, and the Rb plan, which provides forecasts up to 30 years in advance. We recommend subscribing to the Rb plan because it allows you to view not only capture prices and FIP premium forecasts, but also the assumptions for ultra-long-term price projections and all the data that is available in the Ra plan.

What is "Capture Price"?: This is the average revenue per unit of electricity sold if the constantly fluctuating output of solar power and other renewable energy sources were to be sold to the wholesale electricity market. MPX Renewables calculates this by multiplying the renewable energy output by the market price every hour. Using Capture Price, you can easily predict market revenue by multiplying it by the expected monthly power generation.

How do you create market scenarios for the next 30 years?: The ultra-long-term market environment scenarios for the MPX Renewables Rb plan are based on the "Strategic Energy Plan" created by the government and the "Master Plan" created by OCCTO, etc., and aim for carbon neutrality, but rather create scenarios that can be expected as trends, rather than being based on overly ambitious targets.

How do you determine ultra-long-term market prices?: The key factors determining market prices are quantitatively assumed according to scenarios, and hourly market prices for nine areas are calculated using a fundamental model that reflects changes in demand and power source mix, fuel prices, carbon prices, and interconnection line construction plans. Adjustments are then made to account for market price fluctuation risks such as spikes and price declines. The calculation process is the same as for MPX Forward.

Why review ultra-long-term scenarios quarterly?: Even when forecasting market conditions for the ultra-long term, 30 years into the future, the underlying scenarios change due to numerous factors such as current energy policies, power generation plans, market system designs, and international energy market conditions. In particular, revisions to nuclear power policy and interconnection line development plans have a significant impact on area prices. Therefore, we provide the latest best-available forecast prices while taking into account the most recent policy trends.

What is the difference between this and MPX Forwards?: While MPX Forwards is a service for power trading, MPX Renewables is a service for power source investment and renewable energy PPAs. MPX Renewables provides data not available in MPX Forwards, such as capture price and FIP premium unit price forecasts, and is used by a wide range of customers, from power generators to consumers. In addition, we also provide JEPX price forecasts up to 30 years into the future, so it can be used not only for renewable energy but also for investment decisions on other power sources.

Do you calculate the FIP premium?: We provide a complete set of data necessary for the FIP system, including FIP premiums, adjustment coefficients, and adjusted FIP premiums. To address the need to change assumptions regarding FIP reference prices, we also provide Excel spreadsheets for calculation.

Can you provide data on the rate of occurrence of 0.01 yen/kWh and output curtailment rate?: We also provide data that aligns with market environment scenarios that are reviewed every three months, including the rate of occurrence of 0.01 yen/kWh and the output curtailment rate.

Can this be used for fair value assessment of a virtual PPA?: We have a proven track record of using virtual PPAs for fair value assessments. We can also explain future electricity market price calculation methods to audit firms; please contact us for details. Please note that we do not provide fair value assessment services.

Is it possible to conduct a business feasibility assessment for a solar power asset with integrated battery storage?: MPX Renewables data can also be used to evaluate the business viability of battery storage systems.

Can MPX Renewables data be used for the daily operation of battery storage systems?: For daily trading, you need to forecast market prices for the following day and beyond. Please use MPX Forwards.

Do you provide price forecasts for non-fossil fuel certificates and supply-demand adjustment markets?: We are not currently doing this.

MPX-Renewables

Service Overview
Service Features
Frequently Asked Questions

Adopting Companies

It is used not only by power companies, but also by various players involved in renewable energy trading,
such as manufacturing, IT and telecommunications, and real estate.
(Here, we introduce some of our customers who have given us permission to publish their information.)